Welcome to Earth Colony: I PREDICT THAT THE BLACK ON BLACK HOMICIDE RATE WILL DRASTICALLY DECLINE WITHIN 5 TO 10 YEARS by Dr. Steven Nur Ahmed

murder victim

Throughout the United States citizens in large and small cities have been grappling with the problem of ‘black on black’ homicide and violent assaults.  Political conservatives (Republicans) have argued for more police force presence and for increased incarceration while political liberals (Democrats) have argued for stricter gun laws and that education and jobs for the underclass of African American youth be instituted.

 

Both the conservative and liberal views ignore the fundamental problem faced by all African Americans. That is because their thinking is tied to erroneous ideological assumptions. Their assumptions actually support interests contrary to the interests of the African American community.

 

Need I even mention the left’s arguments?  They are entirely out of sync with the present problems faced by the African American community today. In fact, who are they? Where are they? Since the demise of labor unions they have become a joke. The left has forgotten Marx’s practicality: “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways: the point, however, is to change it.”[1]  They are glued daily to ‘Democracy  Now’ where they participate ‘virtual’ revolution like children with joy sticks. Well, look behind you; the plutocrats are standing over you with baseball bats.

 

The problem is not ideological. The problem in the Black community is a practical cultural one. Practical culture is related to the central or core values which when internalized by a people influence their behavior.  It has nothing to do with moral ideology but rather with behaviors that work to serve the best interests of a group in the short and long term.

 

No one on the right or on the left has been or is willing to address the issue of practical culture. So neither the conservative or liberal proposals will engender solutions to the violent crime problem in African American neighborhoods.  And it is evident that African Americans as a whole can’t.

 

What both sides can and have been doing is generating short term economic and political profit or put another way ‘pimpin the problem’ for both partisan and private interests.  That is the ball game they play at the expense of many people who fret for a change for the better in the African American community.  Their pimpin of the problem must stop!

HYPOTHESIS

 

The ‘Black on Black’ homicide and general violent crime rate is positively correlated with the total fertility rate of African American women 15 to 45, inclusive.   The African American total fertility rate now is 1.9 and the trend, starting in 1970, is that it will continue to decrease due to cultural momentum.[2]  Therefore, ‘Black on Black homicide will drastically decrease within 5 and 10 years or by 2023.  Its that simple.

 

For example, in the city Oakland California the year with the lowest homicide rate over the last forty-four (44) years is 60 in 1999.  Prior to that year, the lowest homicide rate was 66, in 1970.  At no time has the homicide rate in Oakland gone below 60 in 44 years. It has gone as high as 165 in one year.

 

The average number of homicides in Oakland per year is 109 within a 44 year period beginning in 1969.  Over that same time span the first wave of people born between 1946 and 1964 reached their 15th birthday in 1961 thereafter and for 19 years the number of those aged between 15 and 24 increased until 1979.  In 1988, the last wave of that baby boom generation born in 1964 reached the age of 24.

 

The United States Bureau of the Census demonstrates that between 1960 and 1975 there was a 25% increase in the population of African Americans aged 15 to 24.  This was the result of a total fertility rate of between 6 to 4.5 babies per African American female with an age range of 15 to 45 years of age between 1946 and 1960. 

 

You can see the crime rate and the prison incarceration rate of persons coming out of Oakland California start to increase during that very same time period beginning in 1972. It was the result of a conservative political argument called ‘get tough on crime’.

 

In 1972, the California Department of Rehabilitation started to modify its prisons’ infrastructures for more maximum security inmates. This process began at a time when the politicians in Sacramento had done their math and knew the demographic changes that were coming.  After all, they had blown open the social dike in urban areas that caused the flood of violence.

 

Evidence in support of my hypothesis is a fact reported in the Contra Costa Times: “…demographic forces reshaping the nation’s inner cities are having a profound effect on Oakland’s schools, particularly those in West Oakland.  Since 2000, the combined enrollment of public, noncharter schools in the area has plunged by more than 60 percent.” The article goes on to state that declines of African American school age children up to 20% have occurred in other cities as well.[3]

 

Therefore, even if general socio-economic conditions for African Americans remain what they are now or even worsen over the next ten (10) years, I predict that within five (5) to ten (10) years the ‘Black on Black’ homicide rate will drastically decline because of a precipitous decline in the African American total fertility rate and the consequent reduction in persons between the ages 15 to 24, inclusive.  Its too bad that the majority of African Americans are not interested in changing their culture because even though the homicide and violent crime rate will drop on a broader scale it portends an omega moment for African Americans.



[1] Karl Marx, The German Ideology

[2] Definition: Cultural momentum means the collective sentiment of a group and is characterized by measurable group behavior in relation to one or more values by time.

[3] Katy Murphy, Noticeable decline in school-age children in West Oakland, Contra Costa Times, 02/12/2012

© Copyright 2013 Dr. Steven Nur Ahmed, All rights Reserved. Written For: Earth Colony

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