murder victim

Throughout the United States citizens in large and small cities have been grappling with the problem of ‘black on black’ homicide and violent assaults.  Political conservatives (Republicans) have argued for more police force presence and for increased incarceration while political liberals (Democrats) have argued for stricter gun laws and that education and jobs for the underclass of African American youth be instituted.


Both the conservative and liberal views ignore the fundamental problem faced by all African Americans. That is because their thinking is tied to erroneous ideological assumptions. Their assumptions actually support interests contrary to the interests of the African American community.


Need I even mention the left’s arguments?  They are entirely out of sync with the present problems faced by the African American community today. In fact, who are they? Where are they? Since the demise of labor unions they have become a joke. The left has forgotten Marx’s practicality: “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways: the point, however, is to change it.”[1]  They are glued daily to ‘Democracy  Now’ where they participate ‘virtual’ revolution like children with joy sticks. Well, look behind you; the plutocrats are standing over you with baseball bats.


The problem is not ideological. The problem in the Black community is a practical cultural one. Practical culture is related to the central or core values which when internalized by a people influence their behavior.  It has nothing to do with moral ideology but rather with behaviors that work to serve the best interests of a group in the short and long term.


No one on the right or on the left has been or is willing to address the issue of practical culture. So neither the conservative or liberal proposals will engender solutions to the violent crime problem in African American neighborhoods.  And it is evident that African Americans as a whole can’t.


What both sides can and have been doing is generating short term economic and political profit or put another way ‘pimpin the problem’ for both partisan and private interests.  That is the ball game they play at the expense of many people who fret for a change for the better in the African American community.  Their pimpin of the problem must stop!



The ‘Black on Black’ homicide and general violent crime rate is positively correlated with the total fertility rate of African American women 15 to 45, inclusive.   The African American total fertility rate now is 1.9 and the trend, starting in 1970, is that it will continue to decrease due to cultural momentum.[2]  Therefore, ‘Black on Black homicide will drastically decrease within 5 and 10 years or by 2023.  Its that simple.


For example, in the city Oakland California the year with the lowest homicide rate over the last forty-four (44) years is 60 in 1999.  Prior to that year, the lowest homicide rate was 66, in 1970.  At no time has the homicide rate in Oakland gone below 60 in 44 years. It has gone as high as 165 in one year.


The average number of homicides in Oakland per year is 109 within a 44 year period beginning in 1969.  Over that same time span the first wave of people born between 1946 and 1964 reached their 15th birthday in 1961 thereafter and for 19 years the number of those aged between 15 and 24 increased until 1979.  In 1988, the last wave of that baby boom generation born in 1964 reached the age of 24.


The United States Bureau of the Census demonstrates that between 1960 and 1975 there was a 25% increase in the population of African Americans aged 15 to 24.  This was the result of a total fertility rate of between 6 to 4.5 babies per African American female with an age range of 15 to 45 years of age between 1946 and 1960. 


You can see the crime rate and the prison incarceration rate of persons coming out of Oakland California start to increase during that very same time period beginning in 1972. It was the result of a conservative political argument called ‘get tough on crime’.


In 1972, the California Department of Rehabilitation started to modify its prisons’ infrastructures for more maximum security inmates. This process began at a time when the politicians in Sacramento had done their math and knew the demographic changes that were coming.  After all, they had blown open the social dike in urban areas that caused the flood of violence.


Evidence in support of my hypothesis is a fact reported in the Contra Costa Times: “…demographic forces reshaping the nation’s inner cities are having a profound effect on Oakland’s schools, particularly those in West Oakland.  Since 2000, the combined enrollment of public, noncharter schools in the area has plunged by more than 60 percent.” The article goes on to state that declines of African American school age children up to 20% have occurred in other cities as well.[3]


Therefore, even if general socio-economic conditions for African Americans remain what they are now or even worsen over the next ten (10) years, I predict that within five (5) to ten (10) years the ‘Black on Black’ homicide rate will drastically decline because of a precipitous decline in the African American total fertility rate and the consequent reduction in persons between the ages 15 to 24, inclusive.  Its too bad that the majority of African Americans are not interested in changing their culture because even though the homicide and violent crime rate will drop on a broader scale it portends an omega moment for African Americans.

[1] Karl Marx, The German Ideology

[2] Definition: Cultural momentum means the collective sentiment of a group and is characterized by measurable group behavior in relation to one or more values by time.

[3] Katy Murphy, Noticeable decline in school-age children in West Oakland, Contra Costa Times, 02/12/2012


C=B:E. Learn this equation because your life may depend upon it.  It means that the carrying capacity (C) of any given environment increases or decreases as the biotic potential (a living being’s potential to have offspring)(B) goes up or down in relation to resistance by the environment (E) going up or down.  For example, I once lived on a 500 acre farm in Mississippi during the 1950s.  My grandfather had 16 children. Now there were 18 persons on the land. They were each given an acre or two on which to build a home when they married.  Each of the sons and some of the daughters married and then built homes for themselves on the family farm.

They in turn had over 8 or 9 children. So now that original 2+16=18 had become 2+16×9 or approximately 160 descendents plus my grandfather and grandmother (162). By the mid 1950s, the number of grandchildren had become so numerous that it became impossible to apportion land to each grandson upon their marriage because to do so would have decreased the agricultural capacity of the farm and its gross domestic product or put another way it would have reduced how much commodities the farm could produce in a year. Also there was the risk that over use of the soil would have depleted it as well as water resources. All of that over time would have decreased the amount of surplus produce and money earned each year thus slowly causing each family to suffer a decline in their overall quality of life.

Those 160 grandchildren grew to maturity and started to have children.  Even if each of them had but 5 children apiece which was normal in the mid 1950s it would have constituted 2+16+160×5=818 more family members. Therefore it was no longer feasible to continue the tradition of giving direct descendents an acre or two from the land and a share in the wealth produced by the farm. The carrying capacity of the farm land was reduced by the resistance of the environment to any further population growth because there were too many mouths to feed and not enough resources to insure that each new generation could get from the farm an equal or greater share of its resources.  It was impossible to maintain a reasonable standard of life for all. It was a clear example of the law of diminishing returns.


The law of diminishing returns is applicable on a worldwide basis, too.  There are over 7,100,063,581 (billion) people on earth right now as of this writing.[1] Each generation of people in developing nations want to live an American lifestyle and so want to live in cities and have more material luxuries than what the previous generations had. Our world population will increase to over 9 billion in two decades. But at the same time in the more industrialized countries fertility rates are decreasing to far below replacement levels.[2] That indicates that later this century (2048 or 2050) our world population is going to nose dive and it may never recover. It may not recover because the environment will resist human recovery because the environment will not meet the basic needs of human beings worldwide.

Note this, 50% of all life is supported by the oceans and seas and 80% of the world’s human population lives on coastal regions. Big sea life stocks are down by 90% since 1950 and most stocks are predicted to collapse by 2048 because of new bottom trawling and dredge techniques for fishing.[3] Now, approximately 1000 species of animal go extinct every year compared to just 3% per year for hundreds of thousands of years. Fresh water lakes are drying up, too. For example, Lake Mead in Nevada is at an all time low; Lake Chad in Africa is virtually dried up.

None of these facts are a surprise to government experts. Their studies anticipated these conditions decades ago and are correlated with global population growth. They also predicted even worse conditions to come in the 21st century.  Some people will argue that there are moral reasons such as greed and waste which are the causes of the problems cited above.  Other people will argue that the cause of our problems is the irresponsible use of modern fossil burning technologies. Still other people will argue that our problems are unavoidable and therefore are the inevitable outcome of ‘divine command’ necessity even though there are hundreds of religions throughout the world with different divine command prophesy each contradicting the other. The only thing that we can predict with absolute certainty about future human behavior is that we will seek out food and water and that we will reproduce offspring whenever possible.

The fact is there have been natural crises before which predate written history and all known religious world views.  For example, approximately 80,000 years ago natural disasters reduced the human population to about 2,000 individuals.[4] So, what we face is neither solely due to immorality nor solely due to the burning of fossil fuels. The environmental problems we face are a combination of each. The fact is that we like every other life form on earth are subject to thousands of natural cycles which interplay with the demands which organic life makes on what for us are limited resources.

We are now at a hinge period in natural history and civil history.  It just so happens that both catastrophic natural changes and our moral decline are in sync. But even if we were doing fine morally we’d still be in decline. The fact that we are not doing fine morally means that we face a horrible nightmare. There is nothing that we can do to stop natural cycles from playing out to their natural end. Those forces do not conform to our logic and are absolutely impersonal in their operations.  We will not stop our moral decline either.


My 750 relatives migrated to the northeast, east and west coasts to find their means of support in large urban centers. They individually made more cash income and had between 3 and 6 children per household. Some bought homes and earned equity in those homes. Others rented. But whether they rented or bought their homes they shared a common economic loss; none of them were making, producing or growing things anymore. They didn’t pay attention to that because it was so convenient to just go to the grocery store for produce they once grew.  All of that reinforced an illusion of prosperity but in reality they were becoming poorer.

All seemed to be going well for a few decades. My folks plunged head first into the golden age of materialism in America. But what they didn’t see was the coming of an economic tsunami. Nor did the people who presented themselves as their leaders see it coming. The complexities of urban life started to erode the moral basis of their traditional upbringing. Crime went up especially drug use. Drugs, like crack cocaine, were imported into their neighborhoods to siphon off their surplus cash income. For those reasons and many others, mothers and fathers began to increasingly walk away from their children and never to return.  The family was broken and under the circumstances it will be impossible to put the traditional family back together again because it was born of a different soil.  Then they found themselves surrounded by a different culture in which homicide and suicide became normative.

To compound the moral crisis facing my folks they then got a hard lesson in capitalism. Major corporations started to relocate overseas to exploit cheap labor and to avoid taxation.  Now in the cities without as many factory jobs, cash flow started to dry up. Reality started to set in during the 1980s. African American unemployment numbers started to increase while an annual 3% inflation rate eroded the value of the dollar while drugs and prison life eroded the moral fiber of whole neighborhoods.

Now thousands of my relatives and millions of other African Americans became stranded in economically broken cities like Detroit, Mich., Oakland, Ca. and Compton, Ca.; they are in deep trouble. But given all of that there is another piece of the puzzle they do not have; it is the demographic piece and none of the so called leaders are really telling us what is coming and coming soon.

Between 1946 and 1964, about 7,500,000 African Americans were born as part of the baby boom generation. By use of simple arithmetic we can see into the future. If we add 85 to 1965 it would make a person born in 1965 eighty-five years of age in the year 2050.  By that time most baby boomers will be dead. There would be by that time a total loss of 7,500,000 African Americans.  Over that 19 year period beginning in 2031 leading up to 2050, our folks will suffer an increasing death rate due to many health related causes correlated with a decreasing fertility rate which is now (2013) at below replacement (1.9 babies per women 15 to 44) and the largest population decline in their history.  Things will never be the same.  We can see in the present demographic figures the answer to the question ‘why?’

The birth rate for married African American women was 137.3 per 1000 women between the ages of 15 and 44 in 1950. That birth rate peaked in 1959; 1959 was the year that the birth control pill was approved by the FDA. By the year 1997, the birth rate for married African American women was 70.7 per 1000 women ages 15 to 44. That is a near 50% decrease in the birth rate. At the same time there was a corresponding increase in births to unmarried African American women. Beginning in 1946, the number of births to unmarried African American women was 17.3 births per 1000 or 17%; by 1995 it reached 50.5 per 1000 or 70% of all births to unmarried African American women ages 15 to 44.

In 2005, the ratio of live births to abortions for married African American women was 71.9 births to 18.8 abortions. Conversely, unmarried African American women are more likely to abort their fetus. The facts compel us to conclude that African American women are more likely to carry their baby to term if they are married. But the trend is toward fewer and fewer marriages in the future.  The decline in the marriage rate is correlated with a rise in abortion.  The conclusion? Destroy the black family and they will terminate their own black fetuses.

From 1973[5] to 2011, there have been 54,559,615 reported abortions in the United States. Of that number, 72% were done by African American women. That equals 39,282,922 abortions over a 40 year period.  The ratio in 2005 for unmarried African American women is 67.8 births to 62 abortions. Between 1993 and 2005 for every birth there was an abortion among unmarried African American women.  This is an ethnic catastrophe.

What we are compelled to infer based upon these facts is that the abortion rate and/or birth control to prevent birth will probably remain high at over 48 per 1000 African American women over the next ten years. Two factors make this likely. The children of the baby boomers are the most physically unfit and culturally maladjusted generation of African Americans to ever live. Secondly, the unmarried rate will likely remain high or increase. Approximately 73% of African American women are unmarried. Thirdly, sexuality is independent of marital status.  It adapts to all circumstances. Water conforms to the vessel into which it is poured.

We need not make a moral judgment regarding abortion and a women’s right to choose for us to have common ground upon which to agree that there will be catastrophic consequences for all African Americans alive during the later part of the 21st century for the high abortion rate and declining marriage rate.  We should start now to prepare ourselves for what is to come.


Civil rights is no longer the big issue. We have been given all the civil rights that we will ever get in America. The civil rights bag is empty. We African Americans are actors on the vast stage of human history in this hinge period. Global changes are quickly reducing the carrying capacity of the earth itself and we are on it and so we too are in trouble. There are going to be unimaginable changes. We are not prepared for those changes in whatever form they take.

So called African American civil rights proponents who continue to apply the same strategic formula that Dr. Martin Luther King did in the 1950s and 60s would have you think that the most pressing issue or set of problems facing African Americans today in 2013 are those same civil rights issues of the last 200 years.  They are political whores for the major democratic and republican parties; they are turned out to turn tricks for those parties to get for them ‘black’ votes. They are used by the elite as distractions from the more pressing issues we face. They are wrong and it may cost us many lives if we do not see through their fallacious arguments.


The strategies of Dr. King were tooled for the constitutional issues and civil rights circumstances of a particular era. Those unique circumstances which existed in the 1950s and 60s are no longer central issues for us. For example, much of the industrial base of the Unites States has relocated outside the United States and thus no longer exists in urban centers such as Detroit Michigan and Oakland California; they are not coming back. The economic non-employment participation rate for African Americans is 41.8%[6]. The high school dropout rate in most urban centers is over 50% for African American males. African Americans give over $1,000,000,000 (trillion) dollars away every year and over 33% of our people live in poverty. These are not the government’s problems. The Constitution does not mandate government to make jobs for its citizens; it was established to protect constitutional rights, to defend against foreign enemies, to enforce civil and criminal law, and to take a census every 10 years.

Therefore, for these and other reasons the civil rights strategies are not applicable to the problems which we face today because today’s problems are economic and moral through and through. Our problems today are different by nature and will not be solved by mass public demonstrations.  We must evolve a new family structure which will be efficient in the socialization of our children. We must keep our money. We must pool our money. We must build our capital. We must publicly shame those who don’t.

[1] See: WorldOMeter.info

[2] Euro Stat and U.S. Bureau of Census: 1.5 in Japan; 1.9 in the United States;1.9 United Kingdom; 1.4 in Germany; 1.4 Italy; 1.6 in Russia

[3] See-the-sea.org;oceana.org

[4] 74,000 Years Ago, the Human Species Was at the Brink of Extinction, by Stefan Anitei, pub. SoftPedia, 2007

[5] Roe v. Wade, 93 S. Ct. 705 (1973)

[6] Current Population Survey, 2009